Number Munching

For whatever reason, in the last weeks leading up to November, nothing comforts me more than math.

More accurately, breaking down word counts and my per diem diet of writing helps me to bring the great and nebulous concept of "write a novel in a month" down to concrete, bite-sized, predictable and manageable terms.  Much like pulling the mask off the Ghost of Coldwater Marsh, it helps dispel the fear associated with the daunting task ahead.

So far, my November looks about like this:

• Lunch hour writing:  450 words (time: 1 hour)
• Weekday night writing:  1,200 words (time: 2-3 hours)
• Weekend writing: 3,350 words (time: 5-6 hours)

The above are daily estimates based on past years and past writing samples.  My minimum average writing speed is about 450 words an hour, so I plan to calculate everything on a realistic worst-case scenario.  With luck, I'll only gain ground against these estimates.

To further break that down, I have to start with what I can count on not having.  My Thursday nights are taken up by the one regular social engagement I'm not going to pass on this November, dropping four days from my 30-day total.  In addition, I can't count on being undistracted enough during family times at Thanksgiving to write on either of those days, marking two more off the list.  Lastly, I have a short conference at the very start of the month, during which I'm certain at least one night will be occupied.

All told, I'm losing 7 of my weekday nights and 3 lunchtime periods to the various engagements I can foresee.  That comes to a grand total of 9,750 words I will have to make up.  Thankfully, my word counts listed above are actually above and beyond my 50,000 word limit.

There are 22 weekdays in November, plus 8 weekend days.  Totaling that up with the above estimates (bear in mind, every weekday carries a lunchtime with it), we get over 63,000 words for the month.  Subtract the days we're losing, and I'm left with 53,350 words, meaning I can miss one weekend day and still be on target.

In addition, I've decided to take the Wednesday before Thanksgiving off to relax and to play catch-up near the end of the month.  Since it technically counts as a weekend, we subtract the normal weekday total (1200 + 450 = 1650) from the normal weekend total (3350) to get the additional buffer (1700).  I now have both a free weekend day and a free weekday in my buffer for the month, not counting the days I can already guess I won't be writing.

With any luck, that will be more than enough to account for the days that go off sideways and surprise me halfway through the month (as I'm sure some will).  Considering I am also well under my total available hours for both weeknights and weekends and have assumed I'll constantly be at my lowest average pace, I feel fairly good about leaping forward with confidence.

Now to finish this stupid outline...